Abstract: Parameter identification, model calibration, and uncertainty quantification are important steps in the model-building process, and are necessary for obtaining credible results and valuable information. Sensitivity analysis of hydrological model is a key step in model uncertainty quantification, which can identify the dominant parameters, reduce the model calibration uncertainty, and enhance the model optimization efficiency. There are, however, some shortcomings in classical approaches, including the long duration of time and high computation cost required to quantitatively assess the sensitivity of a multiple-parameter hydrological model. For this reason, a two-step statistical evaluation framework using global techniques is presented. It is based on (1) a screening method (Morris) for qualitative ranking of parameters, and (2) a variance-based method integrated with a meta-model for quantitative sensitivity analysis, i.e., the Sobol method integrated with the response surface model (RSMSobol). First, the Morris screening method was used to qualitatively identify the parameters’ sensitivity, and then ten parameters were selected to quantify the sensitivity indices. Subsequently, the RSMSobol method was used to quantify the sensitivity, i.e., the first-order and total sensitivity indices based on the response surface model (RSM) were calculated. The RSMSobol method can not only quantify the sensitivity, but also reduce the computational cost, with good accuracy compared to the classical approaches. This approach will be effective and reliable in the global sensitivity analysis of a complex large-scale distributed hydrological model.
Abstract: The question of how to choose a copula model that best fits a given dataset is a predominant limitation of the copula approach, and the present study aims to investigate the techniques of goodness-of-fit tests for multi-dimensional copulas. A goodness-of-fit test based on Rosenblatt’s transformation was mathematically expanded from two dimensions to three dimensions and procedures of a bootstrap version of the test were provided. Through stochastic copula simulation, an empirical application of historical drought data at the Lintong Gauge Station shows that the goodness-of-fit tests perform well, revealing that both trivariate Gaussian and Student t copulas are acceptable for modeling the dependence structures of the observed drought duration, severity, and peak. The goodness-of-fit tests for multi-dimensional copulas can provide further support and help a lot in the potential applications of a wider range of copulas to describe the associations of correlated hydrological variables. However, for the application of copulas with the number of dimensions larger than three, more complicated computational efforts as well as exploration and parameterization of corresponding copulas are required.
Abstract: A conceptual hydrological model that links the Xin’anjiang hydrological model and a physically based snow energy and mass balance model, described as the XINSNOBAL model, was developed in this study for simulating rain-on-snow events that commonly occur in the Pacific Northwest of the United States. The resultant model was applied to the Lookout Creek Watershed in the H. J. Andrews Experimental Forest in the western Cascade Mountains of Oregon, and its ability to simulate streamflow was evaluated. The simulation was conducted at 24-hour and one-hour time scales for the period of 1996 to 2005. The results indicated that runoff and peak discharge could be underestimated if snowpack accumulation and snowmelt under rain-on-snow conditions were not taken into account. The average deterministic coefficient of the hourly model in streamflow simulation in the calibration stage was 0.837, which was significantly improved over the value of 0.762 when the Xin’anjiang model was used alone. Good simulation performance of the XINSNOBAL model in the WS10 catchment, using the calibrated parameter of the Lookout Creek Watershed for proxy-basin testing, demonstrates that transplanting model parameters between similar watersheds can provide a useful tool for discharge forecasting in ungauged basins.
Abstract: This paper focuses on the effects of precipitation and vegetation coverage on runoff and sediment yield in the Jinsha River Basin. Results of regression analysis were taken as input variables to investigate the applicability of the adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) to simulating annual runoff and sediment yield. Correlation analysis indicates that runoff and sediment yield are positively correlated with the precipitation indices, while negatively correlated with the vegetation indices. Furthermore, the results of stepwise regression show that annual precipitation is the most important factor influencing the variation of runoff, followed by forest coverage, and their contributions to the variation of runoff are 69.8% and 17.3%, respectively. For sediment yield, rainfall erosivity is the most important factor, followed by forest coverage, and their contributions to the variation of sediment yield are 49.3% and 24.2%, respectively. The ANFIS model is of high precision in runoff forecasting, with a relative error of less than 5%, but of poor precision in sediment yield forecasting, indicating that precipitation and vegetation coverage can explain only part of the variation of sediment yield, and that other impact factors, such as human activities, should be sufficiently considered as well.
Abstract: This paper presents an experimental investigation of the circulation of the horseshoe vortex system within the equilibrium scour hole at a circular pier, with the data measured by an acoustic Doppler velocimeter (ADV). Velocity vector plots and vorticity contours of the flow field on the upstream plane of symmetry (y = 0 cm) and on the planes ±3 cm away from the plane of symmetry (y = ±3 cm) are presented. The vorticity and circulation of the horseshoe vortices were determined using the forward difference technique and Stokes theorem, respectively. The results show that the magnitudes of circulations are similar on the planes y = 3 cm and y = –3 cm, which are less than those on the plane y = 0 cm. The circulation decreases with the increase of flow shallowness, and increases with the densimetric Froude number. It also increases with the pier Reynolds number at a constant densimetric Froude number, or at a constant flow shallowness. The relative vortex strength (dimensionless circulation) decreases with the increase of the pier Reynolds number. Some empirical equations are proposed based on the results. The predicted circulation values with these equations match the measured data, which indicates that these equations can be used to estimate the circulation in future studies.
Abstract: Slurry jets in a static uniform environment were simulated with a two-phase mixture model in which flow-particle interactions were considered. A standard k-ε turbulence model was chosen to close the governing equations. The computational results were in agreement with previous laboratory measurements. The characteristics of the two-phase flow field and the influences of hydraulic and geometric parameters on the distribution of the slurry jets were analyzed on the basis of the computational results. The calculated results reveal that if the initial velocity of the slurry jet is high, the jet spreads less in the radial direction. When the slurry jet is less influenced by the ambient fluid (when the Stokes number St is relatively large), the turbulent kinetic energy k and turbulent dissipation rate ε, which are relatively concentrated around the jet axis, decrease more rapidly after the slurry jet passes through the nozzle. For different values of St, the radial distributions of streamwise velocity and particle volume fraction are both self-similar and fit a Gaussian profile after the slurry jet fully develops. The decay rate of the particle velocity is lower than that of water velocity along the jet axis, and the axial distributions of the centerline particle streamwise velocity are self-similar along the jet axis. The pattern of particle dispersion depends on the Stokes number St. When St = 0.39, the particle dispersion along the radial direction is considerable, and the relative velocity is very low due to the low dynamic response time. When St = 3.08, the dispersion of particles along the radial direction is very little, and most of the particles have high relative velocities along the streamwise direction.
Abstract: In this study, porosity was introduced into two-dimensional shallow water equations to reflect the effects of obstructions, leading to the modification of the expressions for the flux and source terms. An extra porosity source term appears in the momentum equation. The numerical model of the shallow water equations with porosity is presented with the finite volume method on unstructured grids and the modified Roe-type approximate Riemann solver. The source terms of the bed slope and porosity are both decomposed in the characteristic direction so that the numerical scheme can exactly satisfy the conservative property. The present model was tested with a dam break with discontinuous porosity and a flash flood in the Toce River Valley. The results show that the model can simulate the influence of obstructions, and the numerical scheme can maintain the flux balance at the interface with high efficiency and resolution.
Abstract: Microcystis aeruginosa, generally occurring in large colonies under natural conditions, mainly exists as single cells in laboratory cultures. The mechanisms involved in colony formation in Microcystis aeruginosa and their roles in algal blooms remain unknown. In this study, based on previous research findings that fluid motion may stimulate the colony formation in green algae, culture experiments were conducted under axenic conditions in a circular water chamber where the flow rate, temperature, light, and nutrients were controlled. The number of cells of Microcystis aeruginosa, the number of cells per colony, and the colonial characteristics in various growth phases were observed and measured. The results indicated that the colony formation in Microcystis aeruginosa, which was not observed under stagnant conditions, was evident when there was fluid motion, with the number of cells per largest colony reaching 120 and the proportion of the number of cells in colonial form to the total number of cells and the mean number of cells per colony reaching their peak values at a flow rate of 35 cm/s. Based on the analysis of colony formation process, fluid motion stimulates the colony formation in Microcystis aeruginosa in the lag growth phase, while flushes and disaggregates the colonies in the exponential growth phase. The stimulation effect in the lag growth phase may be attributable to the involvement of fluid motion in a series of physiological processes, including the uptake of trace elements and the synthesis and secretion of polysaccharides. In addition, the experimental groups exhibiting typical colonial characteristics in the lag growth phase were found to have higher cell biomass in the later phase.
