Volume 18 Issue 4
Dec.  2025
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Shuai Wei, Kai-rong Lin, Jing-wen Zhang, Tong-fang Li. 2025: Dynamic simulation-based assessment of water supply risks and emergency water demand in coastal cities. Water Science and Engineering, 18(4): 431-443. doi: 10.1016/j.wse.2025.09.005
Citation: Shuai Wei, Kai-rong Lin, Jing-wen Zhang, Tong-fang Li. 2025: Dynamic simulation-based assessment of water supply risks and emergency water demand in coastal cities. Water Science and Engineering, 18(4): 431-443. doi: 10.1016/j.wse.2025.09.005
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Dynamic simulation-based assessment of water supply risks and emergency water demand in coastal cities

doi: 10.1016/j.wse.2025.09.005

  • a. School of Civil Engineering, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China;

  • b. Water Supply Affairs Center of Zhongshan City, Zhongshan 528400, China;

  • c. Guangdong Key Laboratory of Marine Civil Engineering, Guangzhou 510275, China;

  • d. Guangdong Engineering Technology Research Center of Water Security Regulation and Control for Southern China, Guangzhou 510275, China

  • Received Date: 2025-04-22
  • Accepted Date: 2025-08-22
    • Available Online: 2025-12-03
    Abstract
  • Frequent saltwater intrusion induced by extreme climate events poses significant challenges to water supply security in coastal cities. This study developed a supply-demand balance model for urban water supply systems based on the system dynamics (SD) method, employing the supply-demand gap and water stress index (WSI) as risk indicators. Dynamic simulations were conducted in Zhongshan City in China across five development and 17 saltwater boundary scenarios, and corresponding emergency water reserve requirements were proposed for emergency durations of 10-60 d. The results showed no supply-demand gaps from 2016 to 2023, although water supply was notably affected by saltwater intrusion. The highest risk occurred in 2021 when saltwater fronts reached the Renyi and Dafeng intakes, resulting in a peak WSI of 0.45. Water demand would peak in 2035 across all development scenarios. The economic development scenario exhibited the highest demand, the conservation development scenario the lowest, and the comprehensive development scenario the second lowest, with the latter balancing economic and social development with resource conservation, enhancing its policy relevance. Across the 17 saltwater boundary scenarios, the conservation development scenario demonstrated the lowest WSI values (0-6.74) and water supply risk level, followed by the comprehensive development scenario (with WSI values of 0-7.11), while the economic development scenario demonstrated the highest WSI values (0-7.84) and water supply risk level. Under worst-case saltwater conditions with 60-d emergency reserves, supply-demand gaps in 2030 would reach 7.938 × 107 m3 and 8.928 × 107 m3 in the conservation and economic development scenarios, respectively, and increase to 10.164 × 107 m3 and 12.354 × 107 m3 by 2035. This methodology offers actionable insights for coastal cities to optimize development strategies and emergency water reserve planning.

     

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