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Shou-ke WEI. 2012: Estimating water deficit and its uncertainties in water-scarce area using integrated modeling approach. Water Science and Engineering, 5(4): 450-463. doi: 10.3882/j.issn.1674-2370.2012.04.009
Citation: Shou-ke WEI. 2012: Estimating water deficit and its uncertainties in water-scarce area using integrated modeling approach. Water Science and Engineering, 5(4): 450-463. doi: 10.3882/j.issn.1674-2370.2012.04.009
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Estimating water deficit and its uncertainties in water-scarce area using integrated modeling approach

doi: 10.3882/j.issn.1674-2370.2012.04.009
  • 1.

    Eawag, the Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology, Dübendorf CH-8600, Switzerland 

  • 2.

    Department of Forest Resources Management, University of British Columbia, Vancouver BC-V6T 1Z4, Canada

  • 3.

    Emodlogic Technology Inc., Vancouver BC-V5P 3R1, Canada

Funds:  This work was supported by the Sino-Swiss Science and Technology Cooperation Program of Switzerland, and the Ministry of Science and Technology of China (Grant No. 2009DFA22980).
More Information
  • Corresponding author: Shou-ke WEI
  • Received Date: 2011-09-09
  • Rev Recd Date: 2012-10-18
    Abstract
  • Accurate assessment of water deficit and related uncertainties in water-scarce areas is strategically important in various fields of water resources management. This study developed a hybrid approach integrating conceptual water balance model and econometric regression to estimate water shortage and its related uncertainties in water-scarce areas. This hybrid approach was used to assess the agricultural water deficit of Beijing, an extremely water-scarce area in China. A predictive model of agricultural water demand was developed using the stepwise multiple regression method, and was validated by comparing the predicted values with observed data. Scenario analysis was employed to investigate the uncertainties of agricultural water shortage and agricultural water demand. This modeling approach can assist water administration in creating sustainable water allocation strategies in water-scarce areas. 

     

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