Water Science and Engineering 2009, 2(1) 25-31  DOI:   10.3882/j.issn.1674-2370.2009.01.003   ISSN: 1674-2370 CN: 32-1785/TV

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tide forecasting method
operational evaluation
dynamic weight distribution
evaluation facto
Shao-wei QIU
Zeng-chuan DONG
Fen XU
Sheng CHEN
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Tide forecasting method based on dynamic weight distribution for operational evaluation

Shao-wei QIU*1, 2;Zeng-chuan DONG1;Fen XU2;Li SUN2;Sheng CHEN2

1. State Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University,Nanjing 210098, P. R. China
2. Shanghai Flood Risk Information Center, Shanghai 200050, P. R .China


Through analysis of operational evaluation factors for tide forecasting, the relationship between the evaluation factors and the weights of forecasters was examined. A tide forecasting method based on dynamic weight distribution for operational evaluation was developed, and multiple-forecaster synchronous forecasting was realized while avoiding the instability cased by only one forecaster. Weights were distributed to the forecasters according to each one’s forecast precision. An evaluation criterion for the professional level of the forecasters was also built. The eligibility rates of forecast results demonstrate the skill of the forecasters and the stability of their forecasts. With the developed tide forecasting method, the precision and reasonableness of tide forecasting are improved. The application of the present method to tide forecasting at the Huangpu Park tidal station demonstrates the validity of the method.

Keywords tide forecasting method   operational evaluation   dynamic weight distribution   evaluation facto  
Received 2008-08-28 Revised 2009-03-01 Online:  
DOI: 10.3882/j.issn.1674-2370.2009.01.003
Corresponding Authors: Shao-wei QIU
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