Water Science and Engineering 2018, 11(2) 157-166 DOI:   https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wse.2018.07.002  ISSN: 1674-2370 CN: 32-1785/TV

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Hydropower generation
Climate change
Sensitivity analysis
Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE)
Mohammad Mehedi Hasan
Guido Wyseure
Article by Mohammad Mehedi Hasan
Article by Guido Wyseure

Impact of climate change on hydropower generation in Rio Jubones Basin, Ecuador

Mohammad Mehedi Hasan a, *, Guido Wyseure b

a Hydraulic Research Directorate, River Research Institute, Faridpur 7800, Bangladesh
b Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, KU Leuven, 3001 Leuven, Belgium


This study attempted to use the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT), integrated with geographic information systems (GIS), for assessment of climate change impact on hydropower generation. This methodology of climate change impact modeling was developed and demonstrated through application to a hydropower plant in the Rio Jubones Basin in Ecuador. ArcSWAT 2012 was used to develop a model for simulating the river flow. The model parameters were calibrated and validated on a monthly scale with respect to the hydro-meteorological inputs observed from 1985 to 1991 and from 1992 to 1998, respectively. Statistical analyses produced Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies (NSEs) of 0.66 and 0.61 for model calibration and validation, respectively, which were considered acceptable. Numerical simulation with the model indicated that climate change could alter the seasonal flow regime of the basin, and the hydropower potential could change due to the changing climate in the future. Scenario analysis indicates that, though the hydropower generation will increase in the wet season, the plant will face a significant power shortage during the dry season, up to 13.14% from the reference scenario, as a consequence of a 17% reduction of streamflow under an assumption of a 2.9°C increase in temperature and a 15% decrease in rainfall. Overall, this study showed that hydrological processes are realistically modeled with SWAT and the model can be a useful tool for predicting the impact of climate change.

Keywords SWAT   Hydropower generation   Climate change   Sensitivity analysis   Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE)  
Received 2017-05-30 Revised 2018-02-19 Online: 2018-04-30 
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wse.2018.07.002
Corresponding Authors: Mohammad Mehedi Hasan
Email: mmhasan@rri.gov.bd
About author:


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