Water Science and Engineering 2008, 1(2) 10-24  DOI:   10.3882/j.issn.1674-2370.2008.02.002   ISSN: 1674-2370 CN: 32-1785/TV

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Keywords
flood forecasting and regulation
Xin’anjiang model
Muskingum method
water stage simulating hydrologic method
diffusion wave nonlinear water stage method
flood diversion and retarding area
Huai River
Authors
Li Zhijia
Bao Hongjun
Xue Cangsheng
Hu Yuzhong
Fang Hong
PubMed
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Real-time flood forecasting of Huai River with flood diversion and retarding areas

Li Zhijia*1, Bao Hongjun1, Xue Cangsheng2, Hu Yuzhong2, Fang Hong2

1. College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, P. R. China
2. Anhui Hydrology Bureau, Hefei 230031, P. R. China

Abstract

A combination of the rainfall-runoff module of the Xin’anjiang model, the Muskingum routing method, the water stage simulating hydrologic method, the diffusion wave nonlinear water stage method, and the real-time error correction method is applied to the real-time flood forecasting and regulation of the Huai River with flood diversion and retarding areas. The Xin’anjiang model is used to forecast the flood discharge hydrograph of the upstream and tributary. The flood routing of the main channel and flood diversion areas is based on the Muskingum method. The water stage of the downstream boundary condition is calculated with the water stage simulating hydrologic method and the water stages of each cross section are calculated from downstream to upstream with the diffusion wave nonlinear water stage method. The input flood discharge hydrograph from the main channel to the flood diversion area is estimated with the fixed split ratio of the main channel discharge. The flood flow inside the flood retarding area is calculated as a reservoir with the water balance method. The faded-memory forgetting factor least square of error series is used as the real-time error correction method for forecasting discharge and water stage. As an example, the combined models were applied to flood forecasting and regulation of the upper reaches of the Huai River above Lutaizi during the 2007 flood season. The forecast achieves a high accuracy and the results show that the combined models provide a scientific way of flood forecasting and regulation for a complex watershed with flood diversion and retarding areas.

Keywords flood forecasting and regulation   Xin’anjiang model   Muskingum method   water stage simulating hydrologic method   diffusion wave nonlinear water stage method   flood diversion and retarding area   Huai River  
Received 2008-03-21 Revised 2008-05-15 Online:  
DOI: 10.3882/j.issn.1674-2370.2008.02.002
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Corresponding Authors: Li Zhijia
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