Volume 10 Issue 2
Apr.  2017
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Article Navigation >  Water Science and Engineering  > 2017  >  10(2): 87-96
Guo-qing Wang, Jian-yun Zhang, Yue-ping Xu, Zhen-xin Bao, Xin-yue Yang. 2017: Estimation of future water resources of Xiangjiang River Basin with VIC model under multiple climate scenarios. Water Science and Engineering, 10(2): 87-96. doi: 10.1016/j.wse.2017.06.003
Citation: Guo-qing Wang, Jian-yun Zhang, Yue-ping Xu, Zhen-xin Bao, Xin-yue Yang. 2017: Estimation of future water resources of Xiangjiang River Basin with VIC model under multiple climate scenarios. Water Science and Engineering, 10(2): 87-96. doi: 10.1016/j.wse.2017.06.003
shu

Estimation of future water resources of Xiangjiang River Basin with VIC model under multiple climate scenarios

doi: 10.1016/j.wse.2017.06.003

  • a State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing 210029, China

  • b Research Center for Climate Change, Ministry of Water Resources, Nanjing 210029, China

  • c Institute of Hydrology and Water Resources, Civil Engineering, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China

  • d College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China

Funds:  This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grants No. 41330854 and 41371063) and the National Key Research and Development Programs of China (Grants No. 2016YFA0601601 and 2016YFA0601501).
More Information
  • Corresponding author: jyzhang@nhri.cn (Jian-yun Zhang).
  • Received Date: 2017-01-02
  • Rev Recd Date: 2017-03-23
    Abstract
  • Variation trends of water resources in the Xiangjiang River Basin over the coming decades have been investigated using the variable
    infiltration capacity (VIC) model and 14 general circulation models' (GCMs') projections under the representative concentration pathway
    (RCP4.5) scenario. Results show that the Xiangjiang River Basin will probably experience temperature rises during the period from 2021 to
    2050, with precipitation decrease in the 2020s and increase in the 2030s. The VIC model performs well for monthly discharge simulations with
    better performance for hydrometric stations on the main stream of the Xiangjiang River than for tributary catchments. The simulated annual
    discharges are significantly correlated to the recorded annual discharges for all the eight selected target stations. The Xiangjiang River Basin may
    experience water shortages induced by climate change. Annual water resources of the Xiangjiang River Basin over the period from 2021 to 2050
    are projected to decrease by 2.76% on average within the range from -7.81% to 7.40%. It is essential to consider the potential impact of climate
    change on water resources in future planning for sustainable utilization of water resources.

     

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