Impacts of climate change on water quantity, water salinity, food security, and socioeconomy in Egypt

Climate change might have direct impacts on water quantity in Egypt and lead to indirect effects on Mediterranean saltwater intrusion to groundwater, which exposes agriculture to vulnerability. This study investigated impacts of climate change on agriculture, with particular regard to food security and socioeconomy, and quantified the effectiveness of cropping pattern adaptation measures by integrating three mathematical models. The BlueM model was used for hydrological simulations of Nasser Lake under flooding scenarios to predict the water supply from the High Aswan Dam. The water and salinity balance (WB-SAL) model was adopted to estimate the water salinity in the Nile Delta. The simulated results from the BlueM and WB-SAL models were integrated with the agricultural simulation model for Egypt (ASME) to project cropping patterns, food security, and socioeconomy throughout the country. The results showed that future climate change will directly affect the total crop area; crop areas for 13 crop types; the self-sufficiency of wheat, rice, cereal, and maize supplies; and socioeconomic indicators. The proposed cropping pattern adaptation measures focus on fixing the crop areas of rice and orchards and providing half of the population with lentils, maize, onion, vegetables, milk, and meat. The adaptation measures have the potential to promote food security without causing deterioration of the socioeconomic situation. However, water availability has much more significant effects on food security and socioeconomy than cropping pattern adaptation measures do. Accordingly, the country should rationalize water use efficiency and increase water supply.