Impact assessment of climate change and human activities on annual highest water level of Taihu Lake

The annual highest water level of Taihu Lake (Z_m) is very significant for flood management in the Taihu Basin. This paper first describes the inter-annual and intra-annual traits of Z_m from 1956 to 2000. Then, using the Mann-Kenall (MK) and Spearman (SP) nonparametric tests, the long-term change trends of area precipitation and pan evaporation in the Taihu Basin are determined. Meanwhile, using the Morlet wavelet transformation, the fluctuation patterns and change points of precipitation and pan evaporation are analyzed. Also, human activities in the Taihu Basin are described, including land use change and hydraulic project construction. Finally, the relationship between Z_m, the water level of Taihu Lake 30 days prior to the day of Z_m (Z₀), and the 30-day total precipitation and pan evaporation prior to the day of Z_m (P and E₀, respectively) is described based on multi-linear regression equations. The relative influence of climate change and human activities on the change of Z_m is quantitatively ascertained. The results demonstrate that: (1) Z_m was distinctly higher during the 1980-2000 period than during the 1956-1979 period, and the 30 days prior to the day of Z_m are the key phase influencing Z_m every year; (2) P increased significantly at a confidence level of 95% during the 1956-2000 period, while the reverse was true for E₀; (3) The relationship between Z_m, P and E₀ distinctly changed after 1980; (4) Climate change and human activities together caused frequent occurrences of high Z_m after 1980; (5) Climate change caused a substantially greater Z_m difference between the 1956-1979 and 1980-2000 periods than human activities. Climate change, as represented by P and E₀, was the dominant factor raising Z_m, with a relative influence ratio of 83.6%, while human activities had a smaller influence ratio of 16.4%.