Risk analysis of slope instability of levees under river sand mining conditions

Levees are affected by over-exploitation of river sand and river adjustments after the formation of sand pits. The slope stability is seriously threatened, drawing wide concern among experts and scholars in the area of water conservancy. This study analyzed the uncertainties of slope stability of levees under river sand mining conditions, including uncertainty caused by interest- driven over-exploitation by sand mining contractors, and uncertainty of the distance from the slope or sand pit to the bottom of the levee under the action of cross-flow force after the sand pit forms. Based on the results of uncertainty analysis, the distribution and related parameters of these uncertainties were estimated according to the Yangtze River sand mining practice. A risk model of the slope instability of a levee under river sand mining conditions was built, and the possibility of slope instability under different slope gradients in a certain reach of the Yangtze River was calculated with the Monte Carlo method and probability combination method. The results indicated that the probability of instability risk rose from 2.38% to 4.74% as the pits came into being.