Volume 7 Issue 2
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Qian-jin DONG, Xia LIU. 2014: Risk assessment of water security in Haihe River Basin during drought periods based on D-S evidence theory. Water Science and Engineering, 7(2): 119-132. doi: 10.3882/j.issn.1674-2370.2014.02.001
Citation: Qian-jin DONG, Xia LIU. 2014: Risk assessment of water security in Haihe River Basin during drought periods based on D-S evidence theory. Water Science and Engineering, 7(2): 119-132. doi: 10.3882/j.issn.1674-2370.2014.02.001
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Risk assessment of water security in Haihe River Basin during drought periods based on D-S evidence theory

doi: 10.3882/j.issn.1674-2370.2014.02.001
  • 1.

    State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University,  Wuhan 430072, P. R. China

  • 2.

    Hubei Provincial Collaborative Innovation Center for Water Resources Security, Wuhan University,  Wuhan 430072, P. R. China

  • 3.

    School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, P. R. China

Funds:  This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grants No. 51190094, 50909073, and 51179130) and the Hubei Province Natural Science Foundation (Grant No. 2010CDB08401).
More Information
  • Corresponding author: Qian-jin DONG
  • Received Date: 2013-01-13
  • Rev Recd Date: 2013-11-11
    Abstract
  • The weights of the drought risk index (DRI), which linearly combines the reliability, resiliency, and vulnerability, are difficult to obtain due to complexities in water security during drought periods. Therefore, drought entropy was used to determine the weights of the three critical indices. Conventional simulation results regarding the risk load of water security during drought periods were often regarded as precise. However, neither the simulation process nor the DRI gives any consideration to uncertainties in drought events. Therefore, the Dempster-Shafer (D-S) evidence theory and the evidential reasoning algorithm were introduced, and the DRI values were calculated with consideration of uncertainties of the three indices. The drought entropy and evidential reasoning algorithm were used in a case study of the Haihe River Basin to assess water security risks during drought periods. The results of the new DRI values in two scenarios were compared and analyzed. It is shown that the values of the DRI in the D-S evidence algorithm increase slightly from the original results of Zhang et al. (2005), and the results of risk assessment of water security during drought periods are reasonable according to the situation in the study area. This study can serve as a reference for further practical application and planning in the Haihe River Basin, and other relevant or similar studies.

     

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